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LODGER'S
SUMMER 2000 PREVIEW!!!
Summer
2000 had better be hot at the box office. With attendance
down at megaplexes all over the country during the first few
months of the year, exhibitors are hoping for a banner summer.
There seems to be a glut of blockbusters ready to hit the
gate and take the summer by storm. But will they?
Last
year saw huge films like "Star Wars," "The Sixth Sense," "Austin
Powers," "The Matrix," "Tarzan," "Big Daddy," "The Mummy,"
and the Julia Robert's double whammy of "Runaway Bride" and
"Notting Hill" released during the summer months. In fact,
of the top 10 films last year, 9 were released during the
summer. One of those, "The Blair Witch Project," does not
seem to be indicative of what we might see this year. It is
doubtful a small art film or indie film released during summer
2000 will earn over $50 mill, let alone, the $140 "Blair Witch"
generated. Still, as movie fans know, anything can happen.
anything can become hot overnight! And celebs and films can
fall from grace just as quickly and just as easily.
Note:
All release dates are tentative and accurate on 5/10/2000
to the best of our knowledge. The distributors have been known
to make many changes at the last minute. Also, many art films
have their releases plateaued around the country, opening
in NY and LA first and then moving wider as weeks progress.
5/12
CENTER STAGE(PETER GALLAGHER)
SCREWED(NORM MACDONALD, DANNY DEVITO)
BATTLEFIELD EARTH(JOHN TRAVOLTA)
HELD UP(JAIMEE FOXX)
HAMLET(ETHAN HAWKE, KYLE MACLACHLAN) (NY/LA)
A
pretty lame opening weekend. Still about two weeks away from
"go" time. "Battlefield Earth" shouldn't do much business.
Sci-Fi is starting to die off. All the "Star Trek" TV shows
are getting canceled. John Travolta looks ugly in the trailers
with his long hair and beard. (The line on the commercial
actually says "Travolta is the new face of evil." - Puh-lease!)
This isn't the clean-cut Travolta that makes the ladies swoon.
His character was supposed to be 7 foot tall and bald, at
least that's what the character is like in the novel, or so
I've heard. And this is an L. Ron Hubbard book too. Most people
think Scientology is a cult, if not just plain weird.
All
the other films are small little pieces of fluff that the
movie companies are hoping will catch on for a bit.
"Hamlet,"
a modern day retelling of the Bard's classic play looks interesting
but only opens in NY and L.A. Plus, that particular tale has
been told many times on film in the past.
Look
for "Battlefield Earth" to take in about $10 to 12 mill the
first weekend and then plateau at about $60.
5/19
DINOSAURS(COMPUTER
ANIMATION)
ROAD TRIP(BRECKIN MEYER, ANDY DICK, TOM GREEN)
SMALLTIME CROOKS(WOODY ALLEN)
BIG KAHUNA(KEVIN SPACEY, DANNY DEVITO)
THE FIVE SENSES(MARY-LOUISE PARKER)
Summer
finally arrives in force with Disney's "Dinosaur." Trouble
is, Disney has made this spectacular looking film "cute" by
insisting the animals speak. Great for kids but not the serious,
interesting tale it could be for adults, it seems. Still,
the preview which was shown with "Toy Story 2," the first
5 minutes of the film, looks spectacular. Even the new trailers,
with the cutesy dialogue, looks good. "Dinosaurs" should be
extremely popular with kids and adults alike. Disney has latched
on to a sure-fire gold mine. Probably one of the biggest hits
of the summer.
"Road
Trip" hopes to be the "American Pie" of Summer 2000. The flick,
aimed at teens and collegiates, looks hilarious. It could
do quite well.
"Small
Time Crooks" is Woody Allen's first film released by Dreamworks.
Although it is a comedy, the trailer seems to be Woody doing
his familiar schtick. Of course, he hasn't done this since
"Manhattan Murder Mystery" a few years back. How many jokes
can one man make in his career about the spelling of "Connecticut?"
Like all Allen films, this is basically an art film. So is
"The Big Kahuna." It's a great film with Kevin Spacey on the
marquee, but it's basically 100 minutes of talking. No "American
Beauty" here.
Look
for "Dinosaur" to rock the box office. Should open at around
$30 mill and end the summer with about $230 mill in the coffers.
I think "Road Trip" will do well also. Look for an opening
around $12 but strong word of mouth to get it's final total
to around $80-90
5/24
MISSION
IMPOSSIBLE 2 (TOM CRUISE)
5/26
SHANGHAI NOON (JACKIE CHAN, OWEN WILSON)
8½ WOMEN (TONI COLLETE) (PETER GREENAWAY - DIR)
PASSION OF MIND (DEMI MOORE)
The
Summer's first massive weekend, Memorial Day weekend as well.
"Mission Impossible 2" will be huge. Tom Cruise looks as sexy
as ever and John Woo's action sequences really make the film
pop. Males and females alike will find plenty to love here.
"Shanghai Noon" has tested so well that Buena Vista actually
moved up the release date. Jackie Chan seems in top form and
the western genre seems ripe for this kind of an action film.
There are obstacles however. One is marketing. As with it's
predecessor, "Wild Wild West," BV seems afraid to market the
film as a western to teens. They've tried to slick it up as
a rocker. And old images of recent, really bad western comedies
like "WWW" and "Almost Heroes" die hard in consumer's minds.
Still, Chan's charisma may work wonders here.
Peter
Greenaway's "8 1/2 Women" should be a strong summer art film.
And Demi Moore's appearance in an interesting film by Alain
Berliner (who directed the wonderful "My Vie in Rose" - aka
"My Life in Pink) should turns some heads as well.
Look
for "M:I2" to rake in about $40-$50 mill on the first weekend.
Should end up with around $260 before it's all over. "Noon"
may have more work to do. It could go either way. I'll guess
an opening of $15 with a finish around $100
6/2
BIG MOMMAS HOUSE(MARTIN LAWRENCE, NIA LONG)
RUNNING FREE(AKA HOOFBEATS)
Fox
is hoping Martin Lawrence in a dress and prosthetic make-up
with be another (albeit more raunchy) "Mrs. Doubtfire." I
don't see that happening. It does have the jump on Eddie Murphy's
"Nutty Professor 2," however. The film has no competition
but it also comes after a huge opening weekend where "M:I2"
and "Noon" will still be strong.
"Running
Free" is a kids movie about horses that's been on the shelf
for a while. Still, it may have been held back to capitalize
on the summer season. It will only have a small release, probably
similar to "My Dog Skip." The film supposedly is made from
t he horse's point of view.
Look
for "Big Momma" to earn a respectable $20-$30 mill opening
weekend. Lawrence's last film, "Blue Streak" only made $68
mill, but this one will probably go $110.
6/9
GONE IN 60 SECONDS(NICK CAGE, ANGELINA JOLIE, ROBERT DUVALL)
LOVES LABOUR LOST(KENNETH BRANNAGH)
GROOVE(RACHAEL TRUE)
SUNSHINE(Ralph Fiennes)
A lot
of art films come out this weekend. "Labour" is a Brannagh
musical adaptation. "Groove" is about rave culture. "Sunshine"
has Fiennes as 3 generations of Hungarians in a triptych on
the subject of that country's social and political upheaval
in the 1900's.
Apparently
nobody wants to take on the Bruckheimer franchise even though
he is only a producer here of "60 Seconds." The film is based
on an old 70's car chase B-movie but looks to be loaded with
crashes and chases and lotsa action and slick cinematography.
Cage and Duvall seem to be up to their usual acting skill
and Angelina Jolie looks damn sexy. Also of interest is Giovanni
Ribisi, one of my favorite young actors, who is in the film.
With
no competition, I'd look for "60 Seconds" to score a pretty
hefty $30-40 mill opening weekend and finish up with around
$160 mill when all is said and done.
6/16
TITAN
A.E. (FOX SCI FI ANIMATION)
FANTASIA 2000 (DISNEY ANIMATION) (NON-IMAX VERSION)
SHAFT RETURNS (SAMUEL L JACKSON)
BOYS AND GIRLS (JASON BIGGS, HEATHER DONAHUE, FREDDIE PRINZ
JESUS')
SON (DENIS LEARY, HOLLY HUNTER)
BUTTERFLY (SPANISH LANGUAGE)
AN AFFAIR OF LOVE (FRENCH LANGUAGE)
Disney
has really put the pressure on here, releasing the megaplex
version of it's huge Imax hit the same day as Fox's "Titan
A.E." The later is an animated sci-fi extravaganza that seems
loaded with wonderful computer generated special effects.
Too bad the parts of "Titan" that concerns humans and characters
seems a bit more poorly drawn. I wouldn't be surprised if
Fox moved the film up a week or two, but who knows. "Fantasia
2000" has already earned over $40 million just at Imax. Question
is, how many people who don't have an Imax near them, or who
want to see it again, will pay for the smaller screen version.
Meanwhile,
for the adults and older kids, there's John Singleton's remake
of the 70's classic "Shaft" with Samuel L. Jackson looking
damn slick on the posters and in the trailers.
Also
a possible surprise hit is "Boys and Girls" which stars Freddie
Prinz Jr., Jason Biggs (of "American Pie") and Heather Donahue
(of "Blair Witch"). As the first real teen romantic comedy
of the summer, it has the jump on Amy Heckerling's "Loser"
(which also stars Biggs) by over a month. Do not underestimate
the draw of Prinz either, remember "She's All That?"
If
"Titan" and "Fantasia" go head to head, Disney will win the
weekend. "Fantasia" should do $25 mill opening weekend and
wind up with about $150 mill for the summer with it's Imax
returns included in the gross. I think it's a bit eclectic
for some kids and too stuffy for some adults. "Titan," meanwhile,
will probably do $20 mill no matter when it opens and finish
up with about $90. "Shaft" could possibly do well for a few
weeks. It should open around $20 as well and end up over $100,
maybe even as much as $140. "Boys and Girls" will be small
but will still be a surprise to many. Look for it to open
at about $15-$18 but end up with close to $80.
6/23
CHICKEN
RUN (DREAMWORKS ANIMATION)
ME MYSELF AND IRENE(JIM CARREY, DIR - FARRELY BROS.)
BORICUA'S BOND (DMX, KRS-ONE)
Here
is comes. Everyone expects this Jim Carrey outing for the
Farrelys to be the huge blockbuster of the summer. Unfortunately,
they are probably right. If the trailer is any indication,
the film will be pretty lame. Nothing in the trailer makes
me laugh but I have heard audiences howl at some of the stuff.
"Chicken
Run" is done by that guy who does the claymation series "Walter
and Graumut" or whatever it's called. It's about chickens
trying to break out of a farm. Sort of like a claymation "Babe"
but with elements of "The Great Escape" and "Stalag 17" mixed
in. I think it looks boring and too scary for some kids. The
trailer is poorly made with an important moment, which should
be hilarious, falling flat on it's face. There's a scene where
the chickens say "Nobody panic," then a beat, then they panic.
Trouble is, the background music keeps pumping this scene
negating the comic impact. Claymation is notorious for not
making money. Dreamworks is probably going to lay an egg financially
with this one.
Any
movie with thug rapper DMX in it isn't really worth discussing.
They do not do extremely well.
Look
for "Irene" to plow through the competition and "gross" about
$50-$70 mill on opening weekend. By the end of the year, it
will have grossed around $320. "Chicken Run" will be lucky
to open at $15 and finish at $90-$100.
6/30
PERFECT
STORM (GEORGE CLOONEY, MARK WAHLBERG)
PATRIOT (MEL GIBSON) (DIR ? ROLAND EMMERICH)
ROCKY AND BULLWINKLE (ROBERT DENIRO)
TRIXIE(DIR - ALAN RUDOLPH)
ALICE AND MARTIN (FRENCH LANGUAGE)
Here
comes the 4th of July weekend - 5 days early. Getting the
jump on the holiday should see massive grosses over a 5 to
6 day span. "The Perfect Storm" and "Patriot" have blockbuster
written all over them. Even though I hate Mel Gibson, the
trailer for the film keeps getting better every time I see
it. And it's got cute Heath Ledger in it.
"The
Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle" looks like an iffy bet.
I just don't see it being the next "Roger Rabbit." The original
series was popular but has become a more and more eclectic
taste as time has progressed.
"Trixie"
is by the always interesting Alan Rudolph so it will only
play the art houses even though it boasts a cast of stars
like Nick Nolte, Nathan Lane and Emily Watson. And there is
talk that "Alice et Martin" will move to July.
Look
for "Patriot" to outstrip "Perfect Storm" almost 2 to 1. Opening
at $70 mill to "Strom's" $40, it will also rack up about a
$250 mill total gross to "Storms" $150. Look for "Bullwinkle"
to open well, at about $40 mill, but to die at about $130.
7/7
SCARY
MOVIE(WAYANS BROS)
BLOOD SIMPLE(RERELEASE) (DIR - COEN BROS)
BUT I'M A CHEERLEADER (NATASHA LYONETTE)
SHOWER (ASIAN LANGUAGE)
After
the glut of mega hits for July 4th, there is always a down
week. "Scary Movie" is the only big studio film to hope to
win with a wide release this weekend. Made by the Wayans brothers,
the film spoofs "Scream," "I Know What You Did Last Summer,"
and other recent blockbusters. It's been on the shelf and
moved around a bit, but this is supposedly because Mirimax
wants to give it the best possible release. I've heard it
is very funny. The rest of the films, of course, are art house
product. "Scary Movie," by the way, was the original title
of "Scream."
Look
for the films from 6/30 to continue to dominate at the box
office. "Scary" will come in 4th this weekend behind "Patriot,"
"Storm" and "Irene." Look for it to make about $15 to $20
mill and wind up with $90-100 in the coffers.
7/12
THE
KID (BRUCE WILLIS, LILLY TOMLIN)
7/14
X MEN (PATRICK STEWART, ANGELA BASSETT)
NUMBERS (JOHN TRAVOLTA, LISA KUDROW, CHRIS KATTAN)
CHUCK AND BUCK (MIKE WHITE, CHRIS WEITZ)
WISDOM OF CROCODILES (JUDE LAW)
Another
big weekend in mid-summer. Disney's "The Kid" has Bruce Willis
meeting himself as a 10 year old and wondering about the life
choices he made. Still, it's a Disney film so it will probably
have a G or PG rating. Pretty tame stuff even with a 2 day
jump on the competition. More likely to slam the box office
this weekend is "X Men," the long awaited live action film
based on the most popular comic book series of all time. "Numbers"
is a comedy with the over-seen Travolta teaming up with Kudrow
as TV anchor-persons who to rig the state lottery, which is
broadcast at the TV station where they work.
"Chuck
and Buck" was the hot Sundance property in January of this
year. It could do quite well but won't break any records.
"Wisdom of Crocodiles" has the ever sexy, ever fey Jude Law
to promote it.
Look
for "X Men" to blow away the competition here and rack up
$50-60 mill. The long haul looks good for it as well with
a final tally probably around $200. "Numbers" won't have numbers
like that. Opening probably around $15, it will be lucky to
see $70. "The Kid" may be the heartwarming tripe that does
quite well in the summer. I'll guess, sight unseen, that it
will open at about $30 and find about $145 mill before it's
all over.
7/21
WHAT
LIES BENEATH (HARRISON FORD) (DIR-ROBERT ZEMECKIS)
POKEMON 2 (PICHACHAU?)
LOSER (JASON BIGGS, MENA SUVARI)
THE IN CROWD (SUSAN WARD, NATHAN BEXTON)
MAD ABOUT MAMBO (KERI RUSSELL)
WOMAN ON TOP (PENELOPE CRUZ)
Ah,
yes, more "Pokemon" and more collectors cards. Yikes. Has
the fad died down yet? Is the glut over? Look for patrons
to line up for the Robert Zemeckis special effects fest right
with the red-eyed card collectors. "Beneath" stars Ford as
a teacher whose wife starts seeing the ghost of a woman he
had an affair with. (And then the ghost starts to possess
her body. Based on a story by Spielberg, you know it's got
to be good). Amy Heckerling's "Loser" also looks like a sure
thing, the best teen romantic romp to come out this year.
Biggs is damn sexy but he won't have a hard time convincing
he is the titular "loser." Better yet, Mena Suvari, who wowed
in "American Pie" and "American Beauty" will rock the screen
right along with him.
"The
In Crowd" looks like "The Skulls," except the protagonist
is a girl. Keri Russel, of TV's "Felicity" is soooooo last
year. And this film has been shuffled around far too much.
A summer date was slated while her TV show was still hot.
Meanwhile, the titillating title of the Cruz film will bring
them out in droves.
"Beneath"
will rock the house. Opening at $40, it will garner around
$170. Look for "Pokemon" to open well, with many tickets sold
for the cards and the seats left vacant. Opening at $30, it
will die at $70. "Loser" will be a surprise, opening at $30
it will go on to hit about $140. The others won't do much,
however "Woman on Top" may be the biggest art house hit of
the summer. With a title like that, I can see it getting $40-50
mill in the till eventually.
7/26
THOMAS
AND MAGIC RAILROAD (PETER FONDA, ALEC BALDWIN)
7/28
NUTTY
PROF 2: THE KLUMP (EDDIE MURPHY)
I WAS MADE TO LOVE HER (CHRIS ROCK)
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (TAMMY FAYE BAKER DOCUMENTARY)
GIRL ON THE BRIDGE (VANESSA PARADIS) (FRENCH LANGUAGE)
As
the summer winds down, the pickens get slimmer. Still, Eddie
Murphy's follow up to his most successful film will be huge.
The trailer out are already raunchy and hilarious. This one
can't miss.
New
distributor Destination is praying the PBS stalwart "Thomas
and the Magic Railroad" will be hot at the megaplex as well.
I think they are wrong. It's more like an art movie for kids.
Chris Rock has done well at times but he won't really hit
the big time until he teams up with Jackie Chan for "Rush
Hour 2." This film, however, is a remake of "Heaven Can Wait"
and if the title changes to make audiences more aware of this,
it could help the film. Rock is a bona fide star now however
and his film will only get more and more popular. The documentary
about Tammy Faye Baker will simply rock the box office. Look
at it to be one of the highest grossing documentaries of all
time if it is promoted correctly.
"Nutty
Prof 2" cannot lose. Look for a strong $50-$60 mill opening
followed by a gross of about $240 mill. Look for Thomas to
open small, under $10 and wind up with only $40 or $50 when
it's all done. Rock will do well as well, if the film is handled
correctly, with $30 on opening weekend and a $120-140 mill
gross that will surprise many by equaling his "Rush Hour"
gross when all is said and done. "Rush Hour 2" will likely
make $200 on it's release in 2001.
8/4
COYOTE
UGLY (TYRA BANKS, JOHN GOODMAN)
SAVE THE LAST DANCE(JULIA STILES, SEAN PATRICK THOMAS)
SPACE COWBOYS (CLINT EASTWOOD, TOMMY LEE JONES)
LEGEND OF BAGGER VANCE (MATT DAMON, WILL SMITH) (DIR - RBT
REDFORD)
THE HOLLOW MAN (KEVIN BACON, ELISABETH SHUE)
BEAUTIFUL JOE (SHARON STONE)
SKIPPED PARTS (JENNIFER JASON LEIGH)
Summer
is now officially over. "Coyote Ugly" is about hot girls who
work at a bar. "Last Dance" is about an interracial high school
couple. It may move to 8/11. "Space Cowboys" stars the almost
dead team of Clint Eastwood, James Garner, Tommy Lee Jones,
and Donald Sutherland. "Bagger Vance" is a Robert Redford
film that might as well be an art movie. And Kevin Bacon and
Elisabeth Shue are hardly big name draws.
Seriously,
adults will take to "Space" quite well. And "Vance" stars
heartthrobs Damon and Smith, so there will be a little fire
left before school starts again.
Look
for "Vance" to take in about $25 this weekend and end up with
about $100. "Cowboys" will do about the same. "Ugly," "Hollow"
and "Dance" will be lucky to grab $10 each this weekend and
finish with $50.
8/11
GODZILLA
2000 (GOD-ZERRA)
BEDAZZLED (BRENDAN FRASIER) (DIR - HAROLD RAMIS)
IMPOSTER (GARY SINESE)
BAIT (JAIME FOXX)
Now
were getting to movies that don't even have trailers or posters
out yet. "Godzilla" is a Japanese film that will be dubbed.
Camp appeal only, even if stars do the voice work. "Bedazzled"
stars the over-seen Frasier in a remake of an old 60's film
starring Dudley Moore. "Imposter" is a sci-fi film based on
a Phillip K. Dick novel ("Total Recall," "Blade Runner") and
Foxx needs a hit bad. Unfortunately, this film, where he plays
a petty thief who tries to help Feds nab a big time crook,
looks like a sure fire miss.
"Bedazzled"
will be lucky to beat "Nutty Professor" in it's third week
or "Bagger Vance" in it's second. Look for it to open around
$20 and finish soon after at $80 mill. Nothing else will make
any sort of a dent at all.
8/18
CECIL
B. DEMENTED (DIR - JOHN WATERS, MELANIE GRIFFITH)
THE CELL (JENNIFER LOPEZ, VINCE VAUGHN)
CHERRY FALLS (CANDY CLARK, JAY MOHR)
BLOW DRY (ALAN RICKMAN, JOSH HARTNETT)
GIRL FIGHT (GIRL BOXER MOVIE)
BRING IT ON (AKA JUMP, CHEER FEVER)(KIRSTEN DUNST)
AUTUMN IN NEW YORK (RICHARD GERE, WINONA RYDER, DIR-JOAN CHEN)
The
preview for the "The Cell" makes it look like an awesome sci-fi
epic in the vein of "The Matrix." This could be the hottie
that ends the summer with a surprise bang.
Other
films out this weekend look like small gems. "Cherry" is about
a serial killer who slays only virgins and John Waters' "Cecil
B. Demented" sounds like his best idea since "Hairspray."
In it, a group of anti-film terrorist kidnap an A-list star
(Melanie Griffith) and force her to appear in their underground
film.
The
other films are about a girl boxer, a girl cheerleader, and
a hairstyling competition between a mortician and his lesbian
ex-wife (now that SOUNDS like a John Waters film).
Look
for "The Cell" to do well. It will open at about $30 but make
about $140 before it's over. The others will do well but no
better than your normal art house fare.
8/25
TEXAS
RANGERS (JAMES VAN DER BEEK, USHER)
ONE (AKA "O")(JOSH HARTNET MARTIN SHEEN)
THE WAY OF THE GUN (DIR-CHRISTOPHER MCQUARRIE, RYAN PHILLIPPE)
THE CREW (RICHARD DREYFUSS, BURT REYNOLDS)
HIGHLANDER: ENDGAME (CHRISTOPHER LAMBERT)
STEAL THIS MOVIE (VINCENT D'ONOFRIO) (ABBIE HOFFMAN BIOPIC)
More
hopefuls at the end of the season. Van Der Beek is hot but
the film is a western and they just don't do well, even with
a huney in them. "One" is a re-telling of "Othello." Shakespeare
is sooooo 1998. "The Way of the Gun" has the writer/director
of "The Usual Suspects" to tag on it's posters.
Only
"Rangers" has a real shot at hitting the jackpot but it wont.
It will open well at $20 and then die around $70. Nothing
else will do much of anything.
My
Picks for Top 10 Grossers of Summer 2000. (Now remember, this
is overall. Until they leave the megaplex. Some of them, like
"The Sixth Sense" last year, will have extended runs that
could last into 2001.)
1.
Me Myself and Irene -------------$320 million
2. Mission: Impossible 2 ------------$260
3. The Patriot -------------------------- $250
4. Nutty Professor 2:The Klumps- $240
5. Dinosaurs ----------------------------$230
6. X-Men -------------------------------- $200
7. What Lies Beneath ----------------$170
8. Gone in 60 Seconds ----------------$160
9. Fantasia 2000 -----------------------$150
10. The Perfect Storm ----------------$150
See
ya in line!
Lodger2000
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